Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Russia faces $50 billion battle to stave off banking crisis PUBLISHED ON JAN 24, 2015

Russia faces $50 billion battle to stave off banking crisis

PUBLISHED ON JAN 24, 2015 12:03 AM
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A fragment of a monument to Soviet state founder Vladimir Lenin is on display, with the advertising logo of VTB Bank seen in the background, in Stavropol, southern Russia, Jan 22, 2015. Russia may have to spend more than US$40 billion (S$53 billion) this year to avert a banking crisis, as the growing likelihood of a sharp recession threatens to pile extra costs on a sector suffering from Western sanctions over Ukraine and a plunge in the rouble. -- PHOTO: REUTERS
MOSCOW (REUTERS) - Russia may have to spend more than US$40 billion (S$53 billion) this year to avert a banking crisis, as the growing likelihood of a sharp recession threatens to pile extra costs on a sector suffering from Western sanctions over Ukraine and a plunge in the rouble.
Russian banks are seeing a deterioration in their loan quality, a rise in their risk management costs and increase in their cost of funding, and banking executives and analysts predict things are going to get worse.
This represents a major challenge to President Vladimir Putin, who took power 15 years ago in the ashes of a crisis that wiped out the financial system, and whose popularity partly rests on his reputation for restoring stability.
"We expect a contraction in the number of small, medium and large banks this year," Mikhail Zadornov, head of VTB 24, the retail arm of No. 2 bank VTB, said on Thursday. "It will be hard for all banks. The weakest will leave the market,"he said.
Russia's central bank has already relaxed regulation of banks, and the government has pledged support of more than 1.2 trillion roubles (S$25 billion) this year after spending more than 350 billion roubles in 2014.
But analysts say this is a fraction of what is needed.
The anti-crisis measures will significantly add to pressures on Russia's international reserves and the budget, which is already forecast to run a deficit of up to 3 per cent of gross domestic product this year, hurt most by a collapse in oil prices which is withering the country's export revenues.
"To preserve the status quo, banks may need far more capital than 1 trillion roubles," said Yaroslav Sovgyra, associate managing director for Moody's ratings agency in Russia.
"One trillion would boost their capital (adequacy ratio) by about 200 basis points. But on the other hand because of credit losses you'll see a reduction in capital by roughly 500 basis points."
One further problem is that the government's planned capital injection comes with strings attached: Russian banks are being asked to increase lending to core sectors of the economy by around 12 per cent.
That could further stretch their capital.
SLIPPERY SLOPE
The government is soon to distribute up to 1 trillion roubles of OFZ treasury bonds issued late last year to banks including VTB, Gazprombank and Rosselkhozbank, all state-controlled and under sanctions imposed by Western countries to punish Russia for its involvement in Ukraine.
VTB and Gazprombank are also expected to receive money from the National Wealth Fund, a sovereign fund originally intended to support the pension system, of over 200 billion roubles.
Top bank Sberbank could also attract a subordinated loan of up to 600 billion roubles from the central bank, its main shareholder, or extend an existing loan from the regulator.
It has said it is too early to talk about a new loan for now.
BNP Paribas estimates that Russian banks could need up to 2.7 trillion roubles in additional capital to support lending and absorb credit losses.
Such figures would amount to almost 20 per cent of planned federal budget expenditure this year.
Sberbank chief executive German Gref said last week that Russian banks would need to create about 3 trillion roubles of provisions this year should oil prices average around US$45 a barrel.
Last month, the state spent 130 billion roubles to bail out the first major bank to fall victim to the rouble crisis, mid-sized lender Trust Bank, then ranked 15th biggest by retail accounts and 32nd by assets.
"If banks from the top 30 get into trouble, the government will have to save them at any price," said Armen Gasparyan, a banking analyst at Renaissance Capital.
"It would be very painful for such a bank to go under, as it could spark a crisis of confidence in which the population withdraws deposits en masse and interbank lending rates spike."
Russian central bank deputy governor Mikhail Sukhov told Reuters he did not expect a wave of banking insolvencies, but that the current financial crisis could force those engaged in high-risk financial operations to leave the market.
So far, the central bank says non-performing loans were just 3.8 per cent of banking sector assets at the beginning of December.
But Moody's, which uses a different methodology, puts them at 7.5 per cent already and says they could roughly double this year.
During the last financial crisis in 2008-2009, there was a time lag before the proliferation of bad loans appeared on balance sheets: at the start of 2009, they made up 3.8 per cent of Russian banks' loan portfolios, but a year later this figure had risen to 9.6 per cent.


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GLOBAL POWER PROJECT: BILDERBERG GROUP AND THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

GLOBAL POWER PROJECT: BILDERBERG GROUP AND THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
WED, 1/28/2015 - BY ANDREW GAVIN MARSHALL
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FIRST GRAF ITALICS This is the ninth installment in a series examining the activities and individuals behind the Bilderberg Group. Read the firstsecondthirdfourthfifthsixthseventh and eighth parts in the series.
In previous installments, this series has examined the historical role played by Bilderberg meetings in influencing major institutions and policies across North America and Western Europe over the past half century; the role of the meetings in supporting the rise of corporate and financial-friendly politicians to high office; the representation of interests from among the global financial elite, and the promotion of technocracy (particularly in Europe) and the representation of key technocratic institutions and individuals from Europe’s finance ministries and central banks, who've played important roles in the management of Europe’s financial and debt crises between 2008 and 2014.
This installment continues with an examination of Bilderberg’s role in facilitating the advancement of transnational technocracy in the EU, bringing in some of the top technocrats from leading European and international organizations to meet in secret with finance ministers, central bankers, politicians, corporate executives, bankers and financiers. The role of finance ministers and central banks has been the focus of the previous two installments in this series. Now we look at the IMF, which, together with the European Central Bank (ECB) and the European Commission (EC), functioned as the "Troika" tasked with managing the international response to the debt crisis, organizing the bailouts and imposing harsh austerity measures and structural reforms upon the nations and people of Europe.
The IMF: It’s Mostly Fiscal
In 1992, the Financial Times published a feature article by James Morgan, the chief economic correspondent of the BBC, in which he explained that with the fall of the Soviet Union, the Group of Seven nations (specifically their finance ministries and central banks) and the International Monetary Fund have come “to rule the world and create a new imperial age.” Morgan wrote that the “new global system” ruled by the G7, the IMF, World Bank and other international organizations “worked through a system of indirect rule that has involved the integration of leaders of developing countries into the network of the new ruling class.”
The IMF is designed to come to the “aid” of countries experiencing financial and monetary crises, to provide loans in return for the nations implementing austerity measures and key structural reforms, and to promote easy access for foreign investors (ie. banks and corporations) to buy up large portions of the local economy, enriching both domestic and foreign elites in the process.
Thus, a nation which gets a loan from the IMF must typically dismantle its social services, fire public sector workers, increase taxes, reduce benefits, cut education and health care, privatize state-owned assets and industries, devalue its currency, and dismantle labor protections and regulations, all of which plunges the population into poverty and allows for major global banks and corporations to seize the levers of the domestic economy and exploit the impoverished population as cheap labor.
The IMF was created near the end of World War II, tasked with managing the global "balance-of-payments" between nations: that is, maintaining the stability of global deficits and surpluses (the borrowing, lending and trading) between countries. However, as the post-War international monetary system collapsed in the early 1970s, the IMF needed to find a new focus. In the late 1970s, the New York Times noted that the “new mandate” of the IMF was “nothing less than rescuing the world monetary system – and with it, the world’s commercial banks.”
As the major Western commercial banks lent out vast sums of money to developing nations during the 1970s, they created immense liabilities (ie. risks) for themselves. As interest rates on debt began to rise, thanks to the actions of the Federal Reserve, heavily-indebted countries could no longer pay the interest on their loans to banks. As a result, they were thrust into financial and debt crises, in need of loans to pay down their debts and finance government spending. A key problem emerged, however, in that major commercial banks (who stopped funding developing nations) could not force them to implement the desired policies. What was needed was a united front of major banks, powerful industrial nations and international organizations.
Enter the IMF: controlled by the finance ministries of the majority of the world’s nations, with the U.S. Treasury holding veto power over all major decisions. The IMF was able to represent a globally united front on behalf of the interests of commercial banks. All funding from governments, international organizations and banks would be cut off to developing nations in crisis unless they implemented the policies and "reforms" demanded by the IMF. Once they signed a loan agreement and agreed to its conditions, the IMF would release funds, and other nations, institutions and banks would get the green light to continue funding as well.
The IMF’s loans, policy prescriptions and reforms that it imposes on other nations have the effect of ultimately bailing out Western banks. Countries are forced to impoverish their populations and open up their economies to foreign exploitation so that they can receive a loan from the IMF, which then allows the indebted nation to simply pay the interest on its debt to Western banks. As a result, the IMF loan adds to the overall national debt (which will have to be repaid down the line), and because the nation is in crisis, all of its new loans come with higher interest rates (since the country is deemed a high risk).
This has the effect of expanding a country’s overall debt and ensuring future financial and debt crises, forcing the country to continue in the death-spiral of seeking more loans (and imposing more austerity and reforms) to pay off the interest on larger debts. As a result, entire nations and regions are plunged into poverty and abusive forms of exploitation, with their political and economic systems largely controlled by international technocrats at the IMF and World Bank, mostly for the benefit of Western commercial banks and transnational corporations.
The IMF has amassed great power over the past few decades, and because its conditions and demands on nations primarily revolve around imposing austerity measures and "balancing budgets," the IMF has earned the nickname "It’s Mostly Fiscal". However, due to the effects of the fiscal policies demanded and imposed by the IMF, causing widespread poverty, increasing hunger, infant mortality, disease and inequality, many populations and leaders of indebted nations view the IMF as far more than "fiscal." In fact, former Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak once referred to the IMF as the “International Misery Fund,” a sentiment shared by many protesters in poor nations experiencing the effects of harsh austerity measures.
IMF abuse, Christine Lagarde
The IMF and Bilderberg
As one of the world’s most important and influential technocratic institutions, the IMF has a keen interest in the goings-on behind closed doors at annual Bilderberg meetings, just as the group’s participants have a keen interest in the leadership and policies of the IMF. In fact, it is largely an unofficial tradition that the managing director of the IMF is frequently chosen from among Bilderberg participants, or in the very least, attends the meetings following their appointment. In a 2011 article about that year’s Bilderberg meeting, I commented on the race to find a new managing director of the IMF, noting that only Christine Lagarde, the French finance minister, had previously attended a Bilderberg meeting (in 2009), and therefore, she seemed a likely choice.
Lagarde began her career at a corporate law firm in the United States, becoming the first female chair in 1999. In 2004, at the request of the French Prime Minister, Lagarde joined the French government of President Jacques Chirac as a junior trade minister and began to rise through the ranks. When Nicolas Sarkozy became president in 2007, Lagarde took up the post of finance minister, a position that Sarkozy had also previously held. As Foreign Policy magazine explained, both Sarkozy and Lagarde had a similar vision for France: “free markets, less regulation, and globalization.” Together, they imposed various austerity measures and structural reforms in France, and due to Lagarde’s ideological allegiance to the American-brand of "market capitalism," she was given the nickname, “The American.”
Throughout the financial crisis, and really from 2008 onwards, Lagarde was pivotal in brokering a major bailout deal between the G7 nations, working with her “close personal friend,” Hank Paulson, the U.S. Treasury Secretary (and former CEO of Goldman Sachs). Lagarde became a skilled operator at G7 and G20 meetings, and was a regular figure at World Economic Forum (WEF) meetings. As the [New York Times noted]( in late 2008, Christine Lagarde’s “biggest fans are business leaders and foreign finance officials who have seen her in action.”
In 2008, the Financial Times ranked Lagarde as the 7th best finance minister in Europe. In 2009, she was ranked as number one, with the Financial Times writing that she “has become a star among world financial policy-makers.” That same year, she was invited to the Bilderberg conference. The following year, Lagarde was ranked in third place, having “played an important role in the Eurozone debt crisis, helping overcome Franco-German differences on the bloc’s eventual rescue plans.”
In 2011, Christine Lagarde’s name was put forward as a possible replacement for then-IMF managing director Dominique Strauss-Kahn. The influential economist Kenneth Rogoff said that Lagarde was “enormously impressive, politically astute,” and was treated “like a rock star” at finance meetings all over the world. The New York Times noted that while Nicolas Sarkozy had a challenging relationship with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Lagarde “nurtured a close personal relationship with Mrs. Merkel.”
Shortly after Lagarde officially began to campaign to become the head of the IMF, the German, British and Italian finance ministries endorsed her candidacy, with the main rival for the top spot being the governor of the central bank of Mexico, Agustin Carstens, who secured the backing of the Latin American nations as well as Canada and Australia. Lagarde then received the golden seal of approval when she was endorsed by the U.S. Treasury Department, the only veto power voter at the IMF. Then-Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner commented that Lagarde would “provide invaluable leadership for this indispensible institution at a critical time.” While she was campaigning, Lagarde also managed to secure the backing of China, after she met for lunch with the Chinese central bank governor and deputy prime minister.
German Chancellor Merkel commented that “there are very few other women in the stratosphere of global governance.” As the publication Der Spiegel wrote, “[Lagarde] knows ministers and national leaders throughout the world, and she is on a first-name basis with most of them.” German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble was described as “her most important partner” in the EU and “her anchor in Germany.”
Gillian Tett, writing in the Financial Times in December of 2011, noted that “never before has a woman held such a powerful position in global finance,” and much like Chancellor Merkel, Lagarde now “holds real power.” Throughout the course of the European debt crisis, she used that power. Leading one of the three major institutions of the Troika, Lagarde played a central role in the organization of bailouts and enforcement of austerity across the Eurozone. A former top technocratic official in the IMF wrote an op-ed in the Financial Times in 2013 in which he explained that the IMF, alongside the European Commission and the ECB, are together “the troika running the continent’s rescues,” which “means political meddling had been institutionalized.”
The actions of these institutions were so damaging to the economies and societies – and social stability – of many European countries that a formal investigation into the activities of the Troika was held in the European Parliament in late 2013 and early 2014. The final report, produced by Members of the European Parliament (MEPs), concluded that the Troika’s structure and accountability resulted “in a lack of appropriate scrutiny and democratic accountability as a whole.” After all, the growth and empowerment of technocracy coincides with the undermining and decline of democracy.
Christine Lagarde, who has spent her career as a corporate lawyer and finance minister, has steered the IMF on its consistent path of functioning as a transnational technocratic institution concerned primarily with serving the interests of global financial markets. As such, her participation in Bilderberg meetings – in 2009, 2013 and 2014 – brings her into direct contact with her real constituency: the ruling oligarchy.
- See more at: http://www.occupy.com/article/global-power-project-bilderberg-group-and-international-monetary-fund#sthash.WT6ObeIs.dpuf www.google.com/+EricAu118

Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace.

Press Release

Release Date: January 28, 2015

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace.  Labor market conditions have improved further, with strong job gains and a lower unemployment rate.  On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources continues to diminish.  Household spending is rising moderately; recent declines in energy prices have boosted household purchasing power.  Business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow.  Inflation has declined further below the Committee’s longer-run objective, largely reflecting declines in energy prices.  Market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined substantially in recent months; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.  The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate.  The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced.  Inflation is anticipated to decline further in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of lower energy prices and other factors dissipate.  The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate.  In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.  This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.  Based on its current assessment, the Committee judges that it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy.  However, if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the Committee’s employment and inflation objectives than the Committee now expects, then increases in the target range for the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner than currently anticipated.  Conversely, if progress proves slower than expected, then increases in the target range are likely to occur later than currently anticipated.
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction.  This policy, by keeping the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.
When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.  The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams.

Greek PM Tsipras freezes privatisations, markets tumble

Greek PM Tsipras freezes privatisations, markets tumble

ATHENS Wed Jan 28, 2015 8:03pm GMT
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras smiles as he attends the first meeting of the new cabinet in the parliament building in Athens January 28, 2015. REUTERS-Alkis Konstantinidis
1 OF 2. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras smiles as he attends the first meeting of the new cabinet in the parliament building in Athens January 28, 2015.
CREDIT: REUTERS/ALKIS KONSTANTINIDIS

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(Reuters) - Leftwing Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras threw down an open challenge to international creditors on Wednesday by halting privatisation plans agreed under the country's bailout deal, prompting a third day of heavy losses on financial markets.
A swift series of announcements signalled the newly installed government would stand by its anti-austerity pledges, setting it on course for a clash with European partners, led by Germany, which has said it will not renegotiate the aid package needed to help Greece pay its debts.
Tsipras, who was congratulated by U.S. President Barack Obamain a phone call for his decisive election victory on Sunday, told the first meeting of his cabinet members that they could not afford to disappoint voters.
After announcing a halt to the privatisation of the port of Piraeus on Tuesday, for which China's Cosco Group [COSCO.UL] and four others had been short-listed, the government indicated it would put the whole programme on hold.
It said it would halt the sale of stakes in the Public Power Corporation of Greece (DEHr.AT), Greece's biggest utility, and refiner Hellenic Petroleum (HEPr.AT) and put other planned asset sales of motorways, airports and the power grid on ice.
It also plans to reinstate public sector employees judged to have been laid off unfairly, including a group of finance ministry cleaners whose case attracted publicity last year, and announced rises in pensions for retired people on low incomes.
Uncertainty over the new government's relations with the European Union went beyond economic policy. A day before the EU is expected to extend sanctions against Russia for six months, Greece's energy minister said the country was against sanctions. Athens had already dissented over a joint statement from the bloc on Ukraine on Tuesday.
Tsipras, who met Russia's ambassador to Athens on Monday and the Chinese envoy the next day, told ministers that the government would not seek "a mutually destructive clash" with creditors. But he warned Greece would not back down from demanding a renegotiation of debt.
"We are coming in to radically change the way that policies and administration are conducted in this country," he said.
Financial markets have taken fright. Greek bank stocks .FTATBNK plunged more than 26 percent on Wednesday, taking their cumulative losses since the election to over 40 percent.
The overall Athens stock market fell over 9 percent .ATG, while Greek five-year government bond yields hit around 13.5 percent. This marked their highest level since a 2012 restructuring which wrote off a large proportion of Greek debt held by private investors.
Reflecting the concern, Standard and Poor's cut its outlook on Greek sovereign debt to negative from stable.
Deputy Prime Minister Yannis Dragasakis sought to reassure investors, saying private investors would be taken into account when the administration implements actions.
"There is always turmoil when a government changes," he told reporters. "This government wants the smooth operation of the banks and a rise in their share price."
NOT EASY
Newly appointed Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis, who on Friday meets Jeroen Dijsselbloem, head of the euro zone finance ministers' group, said negotiations would not be easy but he expected they would find common ground.
"There won't be a duel between Greece and Europe," he said, at his first meeting with reporters since taking office.
Varoufakis said he would meet the finance ministers of France and Italy -- both countries which have pressed for a change of course in Europe from rigid budget orthodoxy -- in the coming days.
France has ruled out straight cancellation of Greece's debt, about 80 percent of which is held by other euro zone governments and multinational organisations such as the IMF. However, Paris has said it would be open to talks on making Greece's debt burden more sustainable and Tsipras is expected to meet President Francois Hollande before an EU summit on Feb. 12.
The response from Germany was frosty. Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel said Athens should have discussed the halt to privatisations with its partners before making an announcement.
"Citizens of other euro states have a right to see that the deals linked to their acts of solidarity are upheld," he said, adding that it would be the "wrong solution" for Greece to quit the euro but it was up to Athens to decide.
Fears that talks between the new government and its creditors would break down, with unforeseeable consequences for Greece's future in Europe, fuelled a third successive day of turmoil on the markets.
However despite the air of crisis, some observers thought a deal was possible that could satisfy both Athens and Berlin. A French diplomatic source said he expected that the Feb. 28 deadline with European lenders would probably be extended.
"It's not decided yet because there needs to be an agreement and the Germans and the Finns must go back to their parliament, but we will probably extend the expiration date of the programme," the source said.
Tsipras said the government would pursue balanced budgets but would not seek to build up "unrealistic surpluses" to service Greece's massive public debt of more than 175 percent of gross domestic product.
Priorities would be helping the weakest sections of society, with policies to attack cronyism and corruption, reduce waste and cut Greece's record unemployment.

(Additional reporting by George Georgiopoulos and Angeliki Koutantou; writing by James Mackenzie; editing by Anna Willard, David Stamp and Giles Elgood)
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