Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Obama chooses income equality as next battleground

Obama chooses income equality as next battleground


[WASHINGTON] US President Barack Obama can claim credit for bringing the economy back from the edge of catastrophe.
But on Tuesday he turned his focus to a glaring failure of the recovery: While the wealthy are now wealthier than ever, the average American has not seen any rebound in his wages since the 2008 crisis.
In his annual State of the Union address, Obama vowed to take on rising income equality, two months after frustrated voters dealt his Democratic Party a resounding defeat in Congressional elections.
Obama called for higher taxes on the very rich, more tax breaks for middle class families, an increase in the minimum wage and better workplace benefits to strengthen household incomes.


Touting a new "middle class economics for the 21st century", he demanded: "Will we accept an economy where only a few of us do spectacularly well, or will we commit ourselves to an economy that generates rising incomes and chances for everyone who makes the effort?" The issue has long been on the boil. The rebound from the 2008 to 2009 recession has put the United States at the forefront of all major economies.
Last year job creation was the strongest since 1999, and the unemployment rate fell to 5.6 percent, enviable within the G20 group of leading economies.
And yet tens of millions of Americans still need soup kitchens and social handouts to survive.
Workers in fast food chains and huge retailers like Walmart are increasingly taking to the streets to protest bottom-level pay that forces them to work two jobs to make ends meet.
In theory, American workers should be able to demand more money. But the reality is that paychecks have barely risen. In constant dollars the average hourly salary today is barely higher than that of 1964.
Meanwhile, the ultra-rich have steadily accumulated wealth. At the end of the 1970s, the top 0.1 per cent of Americans controlled seven percent of the country's wealth. Today they control 22 per cent.
The racial divide is equally stark: white families are on average 14 to 15 times wealthier than blacks and Latinos.
"The fruits of the economic recovery unreasonably go to the very rich in the United States," said economist Justin Wolfers of Peterson Institute for International Economics.
It "is not just the poor getting clobbered; it's the very rich doing extremely well." Economists say that the low jobless rate hides the fact that millions of working age Americans have given up seeking jobs, and won't return unless they can get higher pay.
Until they do, there will not be the tight supply of workers needed to force wages up.
"Unemployment is definitely lower now, but that's largely a part of the fact that a lot of people have left the labor force," said economist Ben Zipperer of the Washington Center for Equitable Growth.
"There's a tremendous amount of slack... We are seeing nothing in the data that wages are going to grow." Aside from raising the minimum wage, Obama's proposals focused on tax changes that will shift benefits from the wealthy to the middle class and poor, and remove loopholes that mean the country's billionaires often pay a lower tax rate than their clerical staff "That's what middle-class economics is - the idea that this country does best when everyone gets their fair shot, everyone does their fair share, and everyone plays by the same set of rules," he said.
His proposals pay for themselves fiscally, rather than adding to the deficit, a crucial issue for Republicans.
But Zipperer said this limitation was a "serious weakness", not increasing the budget to invest in things like roads, bridges and trains that will create more jobs and strengthen the economy.
"There's a broad need for infrastructure expenditures. We recognize that that's not something that the private sector is going to provide at the level that we want.
"That's where you want the state to actually step in and increase those expenditures." But it was more than likely that the Republicans, now in control of both houses of Congress, will turn most of Obama's proposals back.
They have repeatedly rejected any tax increases for the wealthy, and, tapping into a deep American cultural sensitivity, accuse the White House of fomenting class warfare.
"Traditionally, Americans like to think of ourselves as a 'classless society'," said Amy Traub of Demos, a liberal research group focused on inequality.
But she said increasingly people are wondering why the have not benefitted in the recovery.
"People can see and feel in their own lives that the benefits of economic growth are going somewhere else, not going to their own working and middle-class families."
AFP

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Obama asks Congress for power to set trade pacts


Obama asks Congress for power to set trade pacts

PUBLISHED ON JAN 21, 2015 10:24 AM
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Mr Obama warned in his annual State of the Union address that China is aiming to write its own trade rules for the Asian region, a move “that would put our workers and businesses at a disadvantage”. -- PHOTO: AFP
WASHINGTON  (AFP) - President Barack Obama asked Congress on Tuesday to give him the powers to fully negotiate huge transpacific and transatlantic free-trade agreements, arguing it will boost the economy and help American workers.
He warned in his annual State of the Union address that China is aiming to write its own trade rules for the Asian region, a move “that would put our workers and businesses at a disadvantage.”
“Why would we let that happen? We should level the playing field,” he said. “That’s why I’m asking both parties to give me trade promotion authority to protect American workers, with strong new trade deals from Asia to Europe that aren’t just free, but fair.”
Mr Obama, seeking to complete the huge Trans-Pacific Partnership and Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership trade pacts, admitted that past trade deals “haven’t always lived up to the hype.”
“But ninety-five per cent of the world’s customers live outside our borders, and we can’t close ourselves off from those opportunities.”
Mr Obama is seeking so-called fast-track authority that would allow the White House to negotiate complete trade deals and to submit them in their entirety to Congress to ratify, without the power to amend them.
Republicans in Congress have shown substantial support for giving Obama those powers, while his own Democratic Party is resisting, worried that the proposed deals could lead to job losses in US industry.
The US President also told Americans in his speech before a joint session of Congress that it is time to "turn the page" from economic recession and war.
"We are fifteen years into this new century. Fifteen years that dawned with terror touching our shores; that unfolded with a new generation fighting two long and costly wars; that saw a vicious recession spread across our nation and the world.
"It has been, and still is, a hard time for many. But tonight, we turn the page."
Citing a growing economy, shrinking deficits, bustling industry and booming energy production, the US President said Americans have risen from recession.
"The shadow of crisis has passed, and the State of the Union is strong,'' he told a cheering audience.
In his speech, Obama vowed to take on rising income equality, two months after frustrated voters dealt his Democratic Party a resounding defeat in Congressional elections.
He called for higher taxes on the very rich, more tax breaks for middle class families, an increase in the minimum wage and better workplace benefits to strengthen household incomes.
Touting a new “middle class economics for the 21st century", he demanded: “Will we accept an economy where only a few of us do spectacularly well, or will we commit ourselves to an economy that generates rising incomes and chances for everyone who makes the effort?”
The issue has long been on the boil. The rebound from the 2008 to 2009 recession has put the United States at the forefront of all major economies.  
Last year, job creation was the strongest since 1999, and the unemployment rate fell to 5.6 percent, enviable within the G20 group of leading economies.


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- See more at: http://www.straitstimes.com/news/world/united-states/story/obama-told-americans-its-time-turn-the-page-economic-recession-and-wa#sthash.abhlZcFZ.dpuf

Loonie sinks on speculation Bank of Canada to adopt easing bias

Loonie sinks on speculation Bank of Canada to adopt easing bias

Tags: Loonie
Canada's dollar weakened to the lowest in more than five years as speculation mounts that the nation's central bank will adopt an easing bias when it meets tomorrow.
The currency dropped as much as 1.4 percent, the most since Jan. 2, the day before the Bank of Canada releases its interest rate outlook updating quarterly inflation and growth projections to factor in cheaper crude oil. It fell versus all its major peers. Charles St-Arnaud, senior economist at Nomura Securities International Inc., said the slump in crude will prompt the central bank to lower its growth forecast by 0.5 percent.
"A lot of investors may not have positioned for tomorrow's Bank of Canada" meeting, St-Arnaud said by phone from London. "We expect the bank to be quite dovish tomorrow. We know they have to incorporate the lower price of oil in their analysis."
The loonie, as the currency is nicknamed for the image of the aquatic bird on the $1 coin, depreciated 1.2 percent to $1.2084 per US dollar at 12:32 p.m. in Toronto. It touched $1.2112, the weakest level since April 2009. Nomura forecasts it will reach $1.25 by the middle of the year. One Canadian dollar purchases 82.75 US cents.
Crude oil, Canada's biggest export, is trading below $50 a barrel US, from $107.73 in June. The central bank's October forecast of growth of 2.4 percent this year was underpinned by an assumption U.S. benchmark crude would trade at an average of $85 a barrel.
CRUDE FACTOR
"They take a spot rate and incorporate that into their analysis," said St-Arnaud, who worked as a Bank of Canada economist for four years until 2005. "They might incorporate a spot rate at less than $50 a barrel -- and that implies a much more dovish outlook without any recovery in oil prices."
The oil slump means it may take longer than expected to return the world's 11th-largest economy to full potential, Deputy Governor Tim Lane said in a Jan. 13 speech. Oil extraction accounts for about 3 percent of Canada's gross domestic product and crude oil about 14 percent of exports, Lane said.
The central bank hasn't raised its benchmark interest rate since September 2010 as it awaits an economic recovery that's in danger of fading. The Bank of Canada has kept its benchmark rate at 1 percent since then, predating Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz taking the job, in the longest stretch since World War II.
Yields on government bonds due in 2045 touched a record low of 2.04 percent today, after dropping five basis points.


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The Swiss Franc: Markets 1, Central Banks 0





Categories: Alternative InvestmentsEconomics
The Swiss Franc: Markets 1, Central Banks 0
In this world of central bank guarantees, bank bailouts, central bank manipulation of interest rates, trillion-dollar quantitative easing (QE) campaigns, and capital controls, one could be forgiven for believing that central banks are more powerful than markets. This is a fallacy. They aren’t.
So this week, when the Swiss National Bank (SNB) broke the Swiss franc’s cap (of 1.20) to the euro, it demonstrated that the SNB had conceded central bank power to market power. Why do I say that? Wasn’t it just the SNB’s response to market conditions? No. The move was inevitable. It was simply a matter of time.
To understand this, we must first acknowledge and accept that there is but one global, albeit disjointed, monetary system. Monetary policies by one central bank — especially large ones like the European Central Bank (ECB) — can and do impact monetary policies in other countries, especially smaller ones like Switzerland. Back in 2009–2010, when the European sovereign debt crisis first reared its ugly head, it created a massive amount of capital flight out of the eurozone. So, many investors, banks, corporations, etc., chose to put their money in Switzerland, seeing the Swiss franc (CHF) as a safe haven, which in turn drove up the value of the Swiss franc. As illustrated in the following graph, the franc appreciated from approximately 1.6 francs per euro before the crisis to about 1.05 francs per euro between October of 2008 and August of 2011 (green shaded area).

CHF to EUR
CHF to EUR
Sources: European Central Bank, Quandl, CFA Institute.

To stem the capital inflows into Switzerland, the SNB placed a cap on the CHF-EUR exchange rate at 1.20 francs per euro in September of 2011. In effect, the SNB then linked their monetary policy to the ECB. Mechanically speaking, the cap meant that the SNB had to print francs and purchase foreign currencies to offset the market forces.
However, in September 2014, the ECB cut rates and also announced a new program to purchase bonds — further easing monetary policy. Due to the SNB’s cap on the exchange rate, the ECB’s announcement meant that the Swiss bank faced a choice: either accelerate the printing of francs to offset the incremental monetary stimulus from the ECB, or exit the cap and return to market exchange rates. After nearly three years, the Swiss are raising the white flag. Market forces win.
There are two primary ramifications from these events. First, a powerful meme that central banks are all-powerful compared to markets has once again been shattered. Just because central banks can tweak market prices at their discretion does not mean that central banks can permanently control markets. And the tipping point creates massive dislocations as central banks shift from manipulated exchange rates to market exchange rates (and vice versa).
Moreover, these sudden, large shifts in policy are not captured well in statistical analysis. The relatively mundane day-to-day variations in prices during “normal” times tend to overwhelm the few large regime shifts in quoted prices.
The immediate effect is that anyone (e.g., Swiss companies) who has costs or liabilities in francs and revenues or assets in euros or other currencies is at risk. Few were prepared for such a dramatic shift in currencies. The 30% move in the franc will no doubt hobble the financial profile of many Swiss companies. The higher franc lowers the cost of imports into Switzerland and, for the moment, reduces the inflationary pressures on consumer products brought about by the massive money printing of the SNB. However, the influx of capital bids up prices of local assets in Switzerland, like real estate and bonds, which are extraordinarily expensive already.
In the final analysis, the SNB actions ultimately demonstrate the difference between currency and money. The SNB can of course control currency in circulation and regulate the banking system (which affects the money supply), but the value of that currency is determined by people. You and me. How we buy that currency, how we sell that currency, and how we spend that currency. And we just told the world’s central bankers that the appropriate value of the franc is a lot more than 1.20 euro. And it isn’t because we like the franc that much. How could we? It’s because we dislike the euro even more. There wasn’t any other way. Central banks 0. Markets 1.
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All posts are the opinion of the author. As such, they should not be construed as investment advice, nor do the opinions expressed necessarily reflect the views of CFA Institute or the author’s employer.
Photo credit: ©iStockphoto.com/Anna Bryukhanova
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